Mexico, Nov 13 (EFE) .- The financial group BBVA Bancomer today maintained the forecast of growth of Mexico in a range of between 2.1% and 2.2% for this year, despite the uncertainty that generates NAFTA and the economic impact of the earthquakes and hurricanes that hit the country in the third quarter.

"The negative growth of the third quarter is due to slowdown in the internal market and the negative impact of earthquakes and hurricanes. subsidiary in Mexico of Spanish BBVA in a newsletter.

In the report "Analysis and Perspectives of BBVA Bancomer", he highlighted that in Mexico the economy had a contraction in the third quarter of the year "due to a lower consumption dynamics, which in turn is due to the temporary increase in inflation, and the fall in oil production and construction".

Aunada a This slowdown was negatively impacted by hurricanes and September earthquakes, said the financial institution.

However, the bank expects that in the latter quarter of the year there will be a "rebound" driven by the recovery of trade and the beginning of reconstruction work for the thousands of infrastructures and homes damaged by the September earthquakes, which left 471 dead.

By 2018, however, there are two risk factors to consider: the possibility of a deterioration in the commercial relationship between Mexico and United States and the uncertainty surrounding the presidential election in 2018.

"We estimate that a possible break in NAFTA would not affect trade flows in a generalized manner. (...) However, it would have a negative effect on investment and on targeted sectors such as the production of vehicles for the transport of goods, "he said.

Another issue that The financial entity is concerned about the proposed tax reform that contemplates a reduction in the corporate income tax rate from 35% to 20% in the United States, although the bank It considered that Mexico has enough competitiveness to resist this rate reduction in the neighboring country.

The exchange rate, which closed on Monday at 19.10 per dollar, depreciates for the "deterioration in negotiations" of the Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), "said the bank.

Inflation, far from the goal of the Bank of Mexico of 3%, will follow a" path descendant ", to close the year at 6.2%, estimated.

Positively, the debt as a percentage of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) will decrease for the first time in a decade, remaining at 48 %.

Mexico benefits from the consolidation of the global environment in recent months.

According to the first financial institution in Mexico, global growth accelerates to 3.4% in 2017-18, which implies an upward revision of around two tenths.